A Chair for Change: Can PBBM Steer ASEAN Toward Unity and Inclusive Progress?

As a concerned barangay official and citizen deeply invested in regional cooperation and grassroots development, I have reflected carefully on whether Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. (PBBM) is deserving and capable of leading the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) when the Philippines assumes the chairmanship in 2026. On the positive side, President Marcos has taken concrete institutional steps that demonstrate readiness: for instance, by issuing Administrative Order 17 on 22 March 2024 to constitute the “ASEAN National Organizing Council (NOC)” tasked with planning, implementation and monitoring of programs for the Philippines’ hosting of ASEAN 2026. Judiciary E-Library+3Lawphil+3Philippine News Agency+3 He has publicly stated that the Philippines is prepared to lead with “practical, inclusive, and measurable initiatives” when the country chairs the bloc. PCO Mirror In his intervention at the 47th ASEAN Summit, he reiterated the Philippines’ commitment to the ASEAN Vision 2045—to build a resilient, inclusive, and dynamic regional community. GMA Network+2PCO Mirror+2 These are favorable signals: they show that the country under his leadership is not merely seeking to host the summit as a prestige event, but at least rhetorically aiming for substantive engagement.

However, capacity and deservingness in this context involve deeper, more complex criteria. Leading ASEAN is not simply about hosting logistics; it requires diplomatic skill, consensus-building across very diverse nations, patience in navigating regional disputes, and domestic credibility. One challenge is that while the Philippines has signalled readiness, the scale of the issues at stake is high—maritime disputes, digital economy transformation, climate resilience, and differing economic capacities among member states. For example, Marcos has highlighted that “with the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement (DEFA) poised to boost our region’s digital economy to USD 2 trillion by 2030 … it is critical that we invest in robust cybersecurity protections, equip our people with digital skills, and build the digital infrastructure necessary to secure ASEAN’s path to becoming the fourth largest economy in the world.” Philippine News Agency At the same time, there remain questions about whether domestic governance issues or capacity shortfalls might undermine the Philippines’ ability to lead credibly and deliver effectively—not just as host but as agenda-setter and implementer.

From the vantage of Barangay Hibulangan, the question also becomes: what does ASEAN leadership mean for us? If national leadership under the barangay-level programs (such as our Solid Waste Management Program, Green Thumb Initiative, Heritage Hub empowerment scheme) is aligned with regional priorities (digital inclusion, MSME support, sustainable development), then the chairmanship presents opportunity. But if the national focus becomes heavily consumed by hosting and optics, local communities might miss out on real spill-over benefits. In my view, Marcos is deserving of the opportunity, provided that he shifts beyond announcements into concrete delivery—and capable, under the condition that domestic and regional collaboration is strengthened and transparent.

My key recommendation is: as citizens and local leaders we should engage proactively—not sit back and wait. We should demand transparency from national leadership (in its ASEAN preparations) and align our barangay programs to the themes the Philippines is emphasizing in ASEAN (e.g., MSME development, digital skills, sustainability). We should push for measurable benefits trickling down to barangays. In short, PBBM has potential and momentum; the real test will be in the coming years whether that potential is realised and whether our community sees the benefits.

When the Ground Moves: Earthquakes, the Philippine Fault System, and Preparing for “The Big One"

Earthquakes are part of life in the Philippines — a nation sitting squarely on the Pacific “Ring of Fire.” Recent events (notably the 2013 Bohol quake and the deadly 2025 Cebu quake) remind us that seismic risk is real and persistent. This blogpost explains the Philippine fault system in plain language, compares the Bohol and Cebu events, summarizes what scientists say about the chance of a future major quake (including the oft-discussed “Big One” for Metro Manila), and — most importantly — gives practical, barangay- and household-level preparedness steps you can start now.

Quick overview: why earthquakes happen here

The Philippine archipelago lies where several tectonic plates interact. Large active faults and subduction zones produce the majority of the country’s earthquakes. Some faults (like the North Bohol Fault that ruptured in 2013) produce powerful shallow temblors that cause severe local damage. Other systems — such as the Valley Fault System (including the West Valley Fault) near Metro Manila — pose catastrophic risk because they run beneath densely populated areas. PHIVOLCS maintains active-fault maps and monitoring for these hazards. PHIVOLCS+1

The Bohol quake (Oct 15, 2013) and the recent Cebu quake (Sept 30, 2025) — dates and coincidence

Bohol earthquake: a magnitude ~7.2 event struck on 15 October 2013, with epicenter in Bohol. It produced extensive ground rupture, damaged many heritage churches and buildings, and caused hundreds of deaths and thousands displaced.
Cebu earthquake (2025): a shallow magnitude ~6.9 quake struck northern Cebu on 30 September 2025, causing major damage in Bogo City and surrounding towns and was described in news reports as the deadliest earthquake in the Philippines since 2013. Reuters+1

Note on “coincidence”: what links the two events is geographic and temporal context — both struck the central Visayas region and both produced shallow, damaging shaking. They did not occur on the same calendar date; the 2013 event was Oct 15, 2013, while the Cebu event was Sept 30, 2025. The 2025 quake is often described in media as the most lethal since the 2013 Bohol quake. PHIVOLCS+1

What scientists say about when a quake will happen (and what they don’t say)

You cannot predict the exact day or hour. Agencies like PHIVOLCS issue models, scenario studies and maps of active faults and likely shaking intensities, but they do not give precise dates for earthquakes — only probabilistic assessments and recurrence information.
The West Valley Fault (“The Big One”) scenario. PHIVOLCS and related studies identify the West Valley Fault (WVF) as one of the highest-impact sources for Metro Manila: models and scenario studies commonly show a potential ~M7–7.2 event that could produce Intensity VIII shaking near the fault, extensive building damage, liquefaction and ground rupture. Studies that feed into building-code hazard maps use probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate ground motions for return periods (e.g., 50-year, 475-year, 2475-year) — these are probabilities of exceedance, not schedules. Media coverage and PHIVOLCS scenario work have warned that a major WVF event could result in tens of thousands of casualties and widespread infrastructure collapse if no mitigation is done. ISSMGE+1

Bottom line for “when”: experts can and do estimate the likelihood and potential impacts of a major quake in a region (and they map which areas are most vulnerable), but they cannot say when on a day/month/year scale the quake will happen. Preparation must therefore be ongoing.

Reading the technical signals — what data researchers use

Seismologists and hazard modelers combine:

active-fault mapping (surface traces, length and slip rates),
paleoseismology (past earthquakes and recurrence intervals — e.g., WVF has moved several times in the last 1,400 years; recurrence estimates inform “overdue” discussions),
instrumental seismicity (recent earthquakes), and
probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) to estimate the ground motions likely in a given time window.
These inputs drive scenario planning (e.g., ground-shaking maps, collapse estimates) used by planners and engineers. But again: probabilistic — not deterministic. PHIVOLCS+1

Simple, practical analysis: how to assess your risk now

Find the nearest active fault — PHIVOLCS has fault maps and the FaultFinder tool to check if your barangay sits near an active trace. If your house is within the hazard zone of a mapped fault, prioritize relocation or structural mitigation. PHIVOLCS
Soil matters — soft reclaimed or alluvial soils amplify shaking and are prone to liquefaction. If you live on low-lying reclaimed ground (many metro coastal areas), expect stronger shaking and higher damage risk. Hazard maps and local government unit (LGU) land-use plans should show these zones. ISSMGE
Building vulnerability — unreinforced masonry and non-engineered structures fail more readily. If your barangay has many old or informal houses, plan phased retrofits and a contingency plan for rapid evacuations. GMA Network

Preventive measures — what barangays, LGUs, and families should do (actionable steps)

For barangay and LGU level

Map hazards & safe zones. Use PHIVOLCS maps and local surveys to tag high-risk areas (fault traces, liquefaction zones, landslide-prone slopes) and identify evacuation routes, muster points, and temporary shelter locations. PHIVOLCS
Enforce land-use and building codes. Do not allow new critical structures on mapped fault traces or high-liquefaction sites; implement stricter codes for hospitals, schools, evacuation centers, and government buildings. ISSMGE
Community retrofitting programs. Provide subsidies, training or micro-grants to help homeowners reinforce roofs, walls, anchor heavy items, and retrofit foundations. Prioritize schools, clinics, and evacuation centers. GMA Network
Early-warning and communication systems. While we don’t have long-term earthquake warnings, rapid earthquake alert systems and robust local communications (SMS trees, radio, barangay PA systems) save lives in the seconds–minutes immediately after shaking starts. PHIVOLCS
Drills and coordination. Regular barangay-wide drills (evacuation, search-and-rescue basics, first aid) and an agreed emergency inventory (food, water, medicines, tarpaulins) are crucial.

For households and individuals

Emergency kit (grab-and-go): water (3–5 liters per person/day for 3 days), nonperishable food, flashlight and extra batteries, first-aid kit, medications, copies of IDs/important documents (digital + print), cash, face masks, basic tools, whistle, portable phone charger.
Home hazard-proofing: bolt bookcases and cabinets to studs; secure heavy appliances and water heaters; place heavy items on low shelves; anchor the water heater; fit latches on cabinets; locate safe spots in each room (door frames are not always safe — identify sturdy table to “Drop, Cover, Hold On”).
Family emergency plan: agreed meeting point outside the house; emergency contact list (local barangay DRR officer, relatives); designate who will turn off utilities if safe (gas, electricity); plan for pets.
Education & drills: practice “Drop, Cover, Hold On” with family and children; teach how to turn off gas and water; know your barangay’s evacuation routes.

What to do during a quake

If indoors: Drop, Cover, and Hold On — get under sturdy furniture, protect your head, stay away from windows, exterior walls and heavy furniture that can topple. Do not run outside during shaking (falling debris is the main hazard).
If outdoors: Move away from buildings, walls, trees, streetlights, and utility wires. Find an open area.
If driving: Pull over safely, stop, and stay inside the vehicle until shaking stops; avoid bridges and overpasses if possible.

(These are standard lifesaving actions promoted by seismological agencies and disaster authorities.) PHIVOLCS

Recovery and long-term resilience (what to invest in now)

Infrastructure resilience: upgrade hospitals, water networks, lifelines and transportation links to withstand shaking and to enable faster recovery. Urban planning should avoid critical infrastructure on fault traces and liquefaction-prone land. ISSMGE
Economic preparedness: establish barangay-level contingency funds, pre-arranged supplier lists for emergency materials, and clear protocols to quickly assess building safety after quakes so neighborhoods can return to normal faster.
Public information & culture of readiness: continuous public education reduces fatalities and speeds recovery — people who know what to do are more likely to survive and help others.

Final assessment: how likely is the next big quake?

Short answer: we cannot predict when. Scientists provide probabilities and scenarios that show a real risk of large events on known faults (including the WVF scenario for Metro Manila). The existence of mapped faults, recurrence intervals, and recent seismicity (like the 2013 Bohol and 2025 Cebu events) means preparedness must remain a top priority. Use PHIVOLCS resources and LGU hazard maps to determine local risk and act accordingly. PHIVOLCS+1

Resources & references (key sources used)

PHIVOLCS — 2013 Bohol earthquake summary and active-fault maps. PHIVOLCS+1
Reuters reporting on the 2025 Cebu earthquake and impacts. Reuters
TIME coverage of the 2025 Cebu quake (context and aftermath). TIME
Technical hazard modeling and Metro Manila PSHA studies (West Valley Fault hazard and scenario assessments). ISSMGE
Recent PHIVOLCS and national press coverage summarizing the “Big One” scenario and guidance. GMA Network+1

Closing: what you can do this week

Locate PHIVOLCS hazard map for your barangay (use FaultFinder) and mark whether your home lies near a mapped fault. PHIVOLCS
Assemble a basic emergency kit (water, food, first-aid, flashlight, cash).
Run a 5-minute family drill: identify safe spots, practice Drop–Cover–Hold, decide on meeting point.
Talk to your barangay captain about community retrofitting priorities and the barangay DRRM plan.

After the Tremors: Hope and Rebuilding in Bogo City, Cebu

Overview — Earthquake in Bogo City, Cebu

On the night of 30 September 2025 a shallow, powerful earthquake (moment magnitude 6.9) struck off the coast near Bogo City in northern Cebu. The quake and its thousands of aftershocks produced extensive damage in Bogo and neighboring towns, killing dozens, injuring hundreds, and leaving many families homeless. PHIVOLCS later identified a newly recognized source for the event — the Bogo Bay Fault — and documented coastal uplift and surface ruptures in parts of the area.

Facts: people and infrastructure affected

Confirmed fatalities and injuries: national reports put the death toll in the dozens (72 deaths reported in aggregated national updates) with many hundreds injured.
Displacement and people affected: official situation reports show hundreds of thousands of people affected across Central Visayas, and many thousands displaced from homes judged unsafe. (NDRRMC/assessments reported large numbers affected; situational summaries put the affected population in the high hundreds of thousands).
Housing and buildings: more than 62,000 houses were reported damaged across the region, with several thousand totally destroyed — schools, churches, marketplaces, hospitals and municipal buildings in Bogo and nearby towns suffered partial to total collapse. Philippine News Agency
Infrastructure and services: bridges, roads, seaports and power transmission were disrupted — hundreds of infrastructure sites and numerous power stations were affected, producing widespread outages and transport interruptions.

Immediate necessities in the affected areas

Short-term needs are urgent and straightforward:

Life-saving assistance: emergency medical care, search-and-rescue where applicable, safe triage and referral to functioning hospitals.
Safe shelter: tent cities, community evacuation centers and inspected temporary housing for families whose homes are unsafe.
Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH): safe drinking water, latrines, and clean-up supplies to avoid communicable-disease outbreaks.
Psychosocial support: trauma counseling and child protection services for survivors who experienced loss, especially after a night-time quake.
Restoration of critical services: coordinated repair of power lines, roads and ports to allow relief flows and revive local markets.

Strategic plan & advice (short → medium → long term)

A. First 0–14 days (Response & stabilization)

Activate local disaster operations centers and harmonize requests with provincial and national agencies. Ensure one unified contact point for NGOs and donors.
Prioritize triage, trauma care, and rapid structural assessments of public buildings (schools, hospitals) to prevent further casualties from aftershocks.
Establish secure, mapped temporary shelters with WASH, distribution points, and community kitchens. Maintain public information systems (radio, SMS, community noticeboards) for safety updates and reunification.

B. 2 weeks – 6 months (Recovery & early reconstruction)

Rapid repair of critical infrastructure (main roads, bridges, power substations) using phased contracting and local labor (cash-for-work) to provide income and speed repairs.
School and hospital rehabilitation prioritization: reopen safe classrooms and medical facilities as temporary or semi-permanent structures while permanent repairs are planned.
Implement a detailed housing damage survey, classify houses (safe / partially safe / unsafe), and roll out targeted housing assistance (grants, building kits, technical advisories). Philippine News Agency

C. 6 months – 5 years (Resilience & long-term reconstruction)

Rebuild to higher resilience standards: retrofit or replace key public infrastructure and enforce seismic building codes in new construction. Incentivize private owners to upgrade via subsidies or low-interest loans.
Invest in hazard mapping (faults, uplift zones, sinkhole-prone localities) and land-use planning that avoids repeated exposure of communities to the most hazardous zones.
Strengthen local early-warning systems, evacuation routes and community-level preparedness programs (regular drills, school safety programs).

Practical advice for residents (what to do now)

Stay away from damaged buildings and marked unsafe zones; don’t re-enter houses declared structurally compromised.
Expect aftershocks — have an emergency kit (water, meds, flashlight, important documents) and a family meeting point. PHIVOLCS recorded thousands of aftershocks following the main event.
If you see gas leaks, broken electrical wires, or structural cracks, notify authorities and keep a safe distance.
Prioritize mental health: access available counseling and watch for stress reactions in children.

Recommendations for reviving the local economy

Recovery isn’t only about rebuilding walls — it’s about restoring livelihoods and confidence. The following mix of actions can accelerate economic revival in Bogo City and surrounding municipalities:

Cash-for-work and labor-intensive public works — fund local repairs (clearing debris, rebuilding community assets) that put money into households quickly while restoring infrastructure. This also supports local contractors and small suppliers.
Small business recovery grants and microloans — provide rapid, low-bureaucracy grants or zero/low-interest loans to micro, small and medium enterprises (stores, sari-sari shops, small hotels, fisherfolk) so they can reopen, restock and rehire. Coordinate with microfinance institutions and local chambers.
Targeted tax relief & utility reprieves — municipal tax deferrals, temporary rental subsidies for affected businesses, and negotiated temporary relief on utility bills to ease cashflow pressures during the first critical months.
Restore critical supply chains and markets — prioritize rapid repair of roads, ports and markets so fish, agricultural produce and goods can move again. Reopen markets with safety inspections and temporary shelters if buildings are damaged.
Tourism and heritage recovery package — for destinations affected but salvageable, launch a “Visit when safe” campaign once infrastructure is secure; bundle restoration of heritage sites with employment programs to leverage public interest and aid funds. Protect and restore damaged heritage structures where feasible.
Agriculture and fisheries support — provide seeds, feed, small equipment and temporary storage to farmers and fisherfolk whose livelihoods were interrupted; repair cold-chains and landing facilities.
Finance & coordination — set up a transparent local recovery fund with clear reporting and community participation so donations and government funds reach priority projects quickly and reduce corruption risk.

Closing: community resilience & the road ahead

Bogo City and northern Cebu face a difficult recovery but also a chance to rebuild smarter. Combining urgent humanitarian care with medium-term economic measures and long-term resilience investments will protect lives and livelihoods from future shocks. Collective action — municipal leadership, provincial and national support, civil society, private sector and affected communities — is the path to recovery that restores not just structures, but trust and opportunity.

Sources & further reading (selected): AP, Reuters, The Guardian — on casualties and immediate reporting; PHIVOLCS and NDRRMC situational reports — on seismic data, aftershocks, and damage assessments; ReliefWeb and major local outlets (Inquirer, GMA) — for operational updates and community impacts.